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Finish is nigh for Maithri and his achcharu coalition | The Sunday Occasions Sri Lanka

By Raja Pakshikaya

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I feel it is my duty to respond to the comments of my unseen buddy Viruddha Pakshikaya last week, as he has attempted to paint a bleak-and false-picture of Sri Lanka below President Mahinda Rajapaksa &#8212 and is already behaving as if the election has been won by Maithripala Sirisena. I&#8217m told that the joint Opposition is currently fighting for portfolios amongst themselves!
My answer to Viruddha Pakshikaya comes in the form of just two words: Tissa Attanayake. Now, I don&#8217t know Tissa personally but this is the man who looked soon after the nuts and bolts of the UNP&#8217s election machinery for the last ten years right after Gamini Atukorale&#8217s untimely demise. Yes, the UNP did not win many (or certainly any) elections in the course of his tenure but with a leader like Ranil Wickremesinghe, that is hardly Tissa&#8217s fault.
Tissa quit the UNP, joined the UPFA, was appointed Overall health Minister and is now a star attraction at UPFA rallies, spilling the beans on what it is like to be in a dysfunctional Opposition. Now, if Tissa believed the Opposition could win, he wouldn&#8217t be carrying out all this, would he? And he should know.
I can almost hear Viruddha Pakshikaya scoffing in response to this, saying that Tissa was only a National List MP who was beholden to the UNP for his seat in Parliament. And my answer to that comes in the kind of an additional two words: Udaya Gammanpila.Now, right here is a bright young man with a political future ahead of him. Even even though he was from the JHU, he obviously attracted adequate SLFP votes to emerge second in the preference votes at the current Western Provincial Council election. And he also &#8220rejoined&#8221 the UPFA campaign last week.
He had left the UPFA a handful of weeks ago to join the Maithripala Sirisena campaign. What he saw there frightened him so considerably that he came running back to the UPFA. His explanation was that he couldn&#8217t be component of a Government that incorporated Ranil Wickremesinghe and Chandrika Kumaratunga.
Viruddha Pakshikaya accuses me of not receiving &#8216good grades for history at school&#8217. Let me enlighten him on a little bit of recent history if he is the pundit in history: let us don’t forget, shall we, the last time when Wickremesinghe and Kumaratunga have been in the exact same Government? She was President, he was Prime Minister. It was 2001.
Kumaratunga complained bitterly about how she was treated by the UNP Cabinet. She was accused of bringing a video camera in her handbag by Ravi Karunanayake. Kumaratunga took over three portfolios whilst Wickremesinghe was gallivanting in Washington. There was chaos all around. That was the cohabitation Government we had.
Tell me, Viruddha Pakshikaya, is that the state of cohabitation to which you want us to return to? And this time about, there are even a lot more men and women than just Wickremesinghe and Kumaratunga pulling Maithripala&#8217s puppet strings: Sarath Fonseka, Champika Ranawaka and perhaps even the JVP and the TNA.
Viruddha Pakshikaya has two major complaints about President Rajapaksa continuing in office: the part played by his family and his alleged persecution of so-called &#8216opponents&#8217 such as Sarath Fonseka, Mangala Samaraweera, the JVP and Shirani Bandaranayake. It appears as if Viruddha Pakshikaya wants to refresh his memory.
Family politics is part of South Asian politics. That is why, for most of its history, the UNP was led by the Senanayake-Jayewardene-Wickremesinghe clan and why it was identified as the Uncle Nephew Party. The Bandaranaikes led the SLFP for fifty years so maybe it is now the Rajapaksas turn.
As for the &#8216persecution&#8217 of opponents, Sarath Fonseka is totally free to say what he wants and campaign for Sirisena only because he was pardoned by the President! About Bandaranayake, the CJ 43 as her supporters like to get in touch with her, I do recall the UNP maintaining that Parliament was above the judiciary, when her impeachment came prior to the House!
And just so that our readers don&#8217t miss the point, let me add that Maithripala Sirisena was a part of all those decisions: he raised his hand to impeach CJ Bandaranayake, to pass the 18th Amendment, to encourage crossovers to preserve a majority in Parliament, so why has he abruptly woken up from slumber now?
The answer is that Sirisena and these pulling his strings believe there is a shortcut to energy. They consider &#8212 incorrectly, of course &#8212 that the men and women would reject President Rajapaksa basically simply because he has been in office for two terms. The people of this nation, Viruddha Pakshikaya, are smarter than that. And they are a grateful individuals, as properly.
The decision just before them is, in truth, really simple. A single, a leader with a confirmed track record who won a war that all of his predecessors lost, and jump began the economy which under Chandrika Bandaranaike when got a record zero per cent development. The other, just a representative of an array of political forces whose only frequent ground is their dislike for President Mahinda Rajapaksa.
The outlandish items they say are hilarious. For instance, Chandrika claims she won 75 per cent of the war. The lady who wanted to bring LTTE representatives into the P-TOMS soon after the tsunami, and give them &#8216Federalism&#8217 through a &#8216package&#8217 and an ISGA (Internal Self-Governing Agency) says she won 75 per cent of the war. You don&#8217t win 75 per cent of the war. You need 100 per cent of the war, and that is what our President did.
Take Maithripala Sirisena&#8217s manifesto released this week. Viruddha Pakshikaya, if you can recognize the English in which it is written, you will see what a hoax it is. They are nothing about nothing. It&#8217s all wishy-washy stuff. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.
So, as Viruddha Pakshikaya himself says, the end is nigh not for the President but for Sirisena and his accomplices. For them, the writing is on the wall, not only metaphorically but actually as effectively, if 1 have been to assess common support making use of the posters for the respective candidates as a barometer!
I do agree with Viruddha Pakshikaya that come the eighth of January, there will be a &#8216maithree paalanaya&#8217 but sadly for him, it will not be headed by Maithripala. It will be headed by Mahinda Rajapaksa who will govern with maithree or loving kindness, even to Maithripala and his achcharu coalition.

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Reading Election Manifestos

By Sumanasiri Liyanage –

Sumanasiri Liyanage

Sumanasiri Liyanage

Tariq Ali, when informed us that democracy will perish even before capitalism reaches its finish. Does it imply a new phase of capitalism with the absence of democracy? In a way it is not a novel phenomenon considering that in its brief history, not going beyond 300 years, capitalism and democracy have not often co-existed. Contemporary democracy was invented under capitalism, but it has not been an outcome of capitalism. It has been an outcome of numerous struggles waged by various social layers of society invariably against capitalism. Sri Lanka has witnessed a robust tendency towards authoritarianism since the advent of a constitution with executive presidential program as its constitutional architecture and neoliberalism as its economic framework. Even though the presidential program facilitated the introduction of neoliberalism the latter in its turn reinforced the executive presidential method. This has created it less complicated us to picture a life without having democracy but not a life without having capitalism. Nonetheless, as soon as once more, democracy has become a crucial concern in the forthcoming presidential election in Sri Lanka ambiguity prevails over what democracy really signifies notwithstanding.

The forces that have been mobilized against the incumbent president have rightly raised the problem of democracy as a central concern facing the nation today. Democracy signifies different things for various individuals, for different social groups. Nevertheless, practically all the oppositional forces, except Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) had come to a consensus that in order to reestablish democracy in Sri Lanka a single of the vital prerequisite is the abolition of the executive presidential technique. It was explicitly states what is needed is to abolish it and replace it with a different program. There was a debate on the option method but the majority of the opposition wanted to go back to the Parliamentary method. Will the democratic aspirations of the men and women fulfil after the presidential election? Let us evaluation the election manifestos of the candidates. At the moment, I have three manifestos with me. I will focus 1st on the Manifestos of Candidate Mahinda Rajapaksa (MR) and candidate Maithripala Sirisena (MS). It is not uncommon to have some degree of rhetoric in election manifesto. Figure 1 summarizes proposals in two manifestos on the situation on constitutional alter. ( Click right here to read MS manifesto and here to MR manifesto)

SumaneIt is exciting to note there is no fundamental difference amongst two candidates as far as the constitutional change/ amendment is concerned. Even though MR leaves the adjustments for the proposed constituent assembly only submitting his ideas on certain troubles, MS has offered detailed list of alterations he is arranging to make within 100 days hence leaving present constitutional architecture intact.

Hence, my conclusion is that with regard to the problems that have been raised by a variety of democratic fora in order to enhance democratic governance in the nation have been either marginalized or neglected in the two manifestoes. Considering that its inception, particularly given that the late 1980s, folks in this country voted for the abolition of the executive presidential system. Constitutional drafts and proposals submitted by citizens’ initiatives reflected this aspiration of the individuals. Nevertheless, the people who began to taste and take pleasure in the energy of the EP refused to adjust it. Ironically, Candidate MS has refused to adjust it following generating a guarantee to that respect even before tasting and enjoying it. In such a circumstance, can we count on democratic governance right after January 8?

The existing democracy discourse in Sri Lanka is marred by a quite narrow definition of democracy. This definition that was advanced for the specific needs of neo-liberalism following in the context of developing nations the Augmented Washington Consensus focuses principally on issues like governance, rule of law, non-interventionist state. Freedom of established media and so on. In other words, the basic objective of democracy is lowered to the operational needs of neo-liberalist phase of capitalism. It would be fascinating to evaluate the definition of democracy adopted right now with that of pre-1994 period. Before 1994 election, democracy included as an inseparable element the power-sharing arrangement although what it meant was not explicitly stated. At least it meant going beyond the 13th Amendment. It also included supplying a ‘human face’ to capitalism. Above all, the abolition of the executive presidential program as an intimate element of comprehensive constitutional redesign was integrated as a pre-requisite of the reestablishment of democracy. This clearly shows the degradation of democratic discourse in the final 20 years. What does it imply? Jairus Banaji, an Indian Marxist, when informed us about 3 meanings of democracy.

1. Democracy in the sense of the formal framework of a constitutional democracy with the rights to freedom and equality, the correct to life and individual liberty, to freedom of religion etc that it guarantees.

two. Democracy as a culture of resistance grounded in the constitutional rights offered beneath my 1st meaning.

three. Democracy as an aspiration for manage. One can see the Communist Manifesto as a generalization of democracy in this third sense (of the mass of workers aspiring to handle their own lives, economically, politically and culturally) and as a culmination of democracy in each the prior senses.  As a result for communists (in Marx’s sense) the mass element in democracy is crucial, it is what defines democracy in its most complete sense and historical form.

In the last twenty years we witnessed two types of democratic struggles. Democratic struggled initiated and led by numerous ‘citizen’ democratic groups operated inside economico-legal structure of neoliberalism with the primary objective of achieving these formal democratic rights. These struggles fell beneath the rubric of very first meaning cited above. And numerous of these movements are fundamentally urban and elitist. In restricted sense, some of them went beyond the first which means falling at the boundary of the second meaning.

The second sort of democratic struggles were not even depicted democratic struggles as they had questioned the standard economico-legal structure of neoliberalism. Here, I include, Tamil struggle for autonomy, the Free Trade Zone struggles against proposed pension bill to integrate EPF into accumulation method, struggles against forceful eviction of urban folks, protests by rural masses on numerous issues connected to their day to day living and the student struggles against commodification of education. In these struggles, even in restricted sense, peoples’ aspiration for control was expressed. It is also exciting note that these struggles were led by subaltern layers of the Sri Lankan society.

Two main candidates have failed in their manifestos to address even essential concerns raised by elitist citizen groups. As indicated in the Figure 1 above, both have refused to touch the unitary character of the Constitution. Although MR have said that he would recommend to the proposed constitution assembly to maintain the unitary character of the state, MS have informed he would not TOUCH the unitary and non-secular nature of the present constitution. Therefore ensuring majoritarian rule over numerically tiny nations would stay unchanged.

It was in this back drop, Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) has also refused to present an option. It has taken an opportunist position to show that it has not yet broken from its coalition politics that began in 2004. Similarly Tamil National Alliance (TNA) has been silent on the principal democratic demands of autonomy. The same can be described on the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC). All three parties have clearly capitulated to parliamentarism claiming that only two alternatives are open. The ideal selection opened for TNA and SLMC in my view is to field candidates on the basis of their key demands or to type a front with other subaltern forces on a minimum widespread plan. In the absence of those 3 forces, the only light at the end of the tunnel is the manifesto of the Left Front that comprehensively address the problems of democracy in its all 3 meanings. The Left Front led by 34 year old former student leader with consistent track record, Duminda Nagamuwa, proposes a setting up of a constituent assembly comprising not just Parliamentarians but the representatives of trade unions, peasant organizations and many other peoples’ organizations. He guarantees autonomy for numerically small nations and guarantees what has been currently provided for then will not be allowed to take back. A robust and vibrant social movement of subalterns dealing with all three meanings of democracy cited above is crucial if the Sri Lankan need democracy following January 9 whatever the outcome of the election.

*The writer is the co-coordinator of the Marx School. e-mail: [email protected]

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Foreign Affairs

Presidential Elections, Slogans Of Straightforward Life And Islam

By Latheef Farook –

Latheef Farook

Latheef Farook

The opposition presidential candidate Maithripala Sirisena pledges straightforward life, Ven Sobitha Thero calls for social justice and Ven Athuraliya Thero struggles for excellent governance and accountability

Maithripala Sirisena says” on elected as the president he would not move into official residence Temple Trees but would reside in his own straightforward home. He has also declared his assets for every person to see. He is keen on major a straightforward life and serving the individuals of all communities.

As a result he calls for simplicity of life.

Venerable Maduluwawe Sobitha Thero who single handedly spearheaded the campaign to abolish the Executive Presidency with his National Movement for Social Justice wanted to ensure social justice for all in the country. He played a important part in the creation of a widespread opposition candidate. He should be paid tribute simply because he fought for justice at a time not a lot of in the nation were even ready to speak about justice due to fear of revenge.

Therefore he calls for social justice.

Ven. Athuraliye Rathana Thero, a Buddhist monk, a vibrant politician and a dynamic member of the Parliament, formed an organization named ‘Pivithuru Hetak’ (The National Council for a Much better Tomorrow) to   adjust the current presidential method by educating   political leaders, intellectuals, academics and the public on essential information important on very good governance for the betterment of the nation.

Hence he calls for accountability and good governance.

Maithripala Pic by Ruzaik FarookSimple life, social justice and very good governance to the benefit of all are all what Islam is about.This is what Allah told us in the Holy Quran to make sure a much better society far more than 14 centuries ago. This is what our beloved Prophet Muhammad (Peace be Upon Him) has shown us by living a life reflecting the Holy Quranic teachings. In reality he was the personification of all what was taught in the Holy Quran.

In truth fantastic Caliph Omar who constructed an empire stretching from North India to Mediterranean capturing which includes Jerusalem without shedding a drop of blood and ruled with justice was identified for his simplicity and just rule.

For example Caliph Umar, busy doing some official function in the light of an oil lamp, place off his lamp when a visitor who came to see him stated he had just come to pay a social call. There was darkness everywhere. When the visitor asked why he place off the oil lamp Caliph said “I was performing workplace work and the burning oil in the lamp is the property of the folks and he was not entitled to use that oil to entertain a friend”.

In this regard it is worth recalling how Caliph Omar captured Jerusalem with his simplicity.

When the Muslim army entered Jerusalem the Patriarch of the city Sophronius stated that he would negotiate only with Caliph Umar and that nobody enters Jerusalem prior to Caliph Umar. On hearing this Caliph Umar informed that he was on his way.

Accompanied by a servant, Caliph Umar rode on camelback to Jerusalem although he could have been accompanied by an entourage that could have made the ground tremble beneath the hooves of horses. He did so to show simplicity and ensure that Allah alone deserves all the glories.

On reaching Jerusalem, it was the servant’s turn to ride the camel and as a mark of respect to Caliph Umar and to make sure that the individuals see the Caliph, the servant wanted the Caliph to ride the camel. Nonetheless Caliph Umar refused and entered Jerusalem on foot whilst the servant rode the camel to the shock and surprise of every person such as Patriarch Sophronius. On reaching the place Caliph Umar continued the journey on foot carrying his shoes in hand below the astonished gaze of the folks.

Caliph Umar walked to the army wearing modest threadbare clothes. The Christians who watched almost everything from the walls of Jerusalem were amazed at the strange simplicity, unable to believe that this straightforward man could be the leader of these properly equipped armies.

The Patriarch Sophronius who saw the unfolding scenes with excellent admiration stated to his folks that no one in the planet would be capable to stand up to these men and women and advised them to surrender to be saved.

Soon after the treaty was signed the essential to the city was formally handed over in 637 AC. The gates of Jerusalem had been opened and Caliph Umar entered along a promenade that led him to the Church of the Holy Sepulcher. Caliph Umar was inside and the Patriarch Sophronius said to him “pray”. However Caliph Umar declined, fearing it may well establish a precedent that would threaten the church&#8217s continued use as a Christian home of worship. Alternatively he prayed in an location to the south of the church, now the site of the Mosque of Umar in Jerusalem.

In performing so Caliph Umar showed the world the meaning of tolerance and generosity in victory and strength. It was the greatness of Islam that shone in his spirit and was reflected in his ethics though he was a particular person known for his firmness and courage.

United States President Barack Obama, British Prime Minister David Cameroon, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, all soaked in innocent Muslim blood, need to have to understand a lot from Caliph Umar on good governance.

With regard to Ven Sobitha Thero’s get in touch with for social justice , in the Holy Quran- in Chapter Al-NISA (Women) Allah says

“Believers, be upholders of justice and bearers of witness to truth for the sake of Allah, even even though it may either be against yourselves or against your parents and kinsmen, or the wealthy or the poor, for Allah is far more concerned with their well-getting than you are. Do not, then, comply with your own desires lest you maintain away from justice. If you twist or turn away from (the truth), know that Allah is nicely aware of all that you do. (from Sayyid Abul A’la Maudi’s Towards Understanding the Quran. Vol 11 Surahs four-6)

Ven Sobitha Thero and a lot of other individuals involved in the presidential campaign call for constitutional adjustments which assure accountability.

Islam advocates accountability “Abdullah reported that Allah’s Messenger (pbuh) stated: Every single one particular of you is a guardian and accountable for his charge. Thus the Amir (Ruler or Head of State) is a guardian of the folks and He is accountable for them. And a man is a guardian of his household and he is accountable for them and a females is in charge of the household and her young children and she is accountable for them and a servant is guardian of his master’s house, absolutely everyone of you is accountable for his subjects” (Bukhari, al-Jam’al-Sahih)

Accountability for Islamic leaders goes beyond the confines of this life they will also be accountable to Allah in the Hereafter. Here are two relevant sayings from the Prophet Muhammad (Pbuh) about the consequences to Islamic leaders who are corrupt, and self-serving:

  1. “There is no governor who rules Muslim subjects and dies, obtaining played foul with them, but Allah will forbid him Paradise”
  2. “If he does not strive diligently to promote their welfare, he will not enter Paradise with them.”

“Verily, Allah commands you to make more than the trusts to these entitled to them. And that when you judge amongst them, you judge with justice.” (four:58)

Islam is also in total agreement with Ven. Athuraliye Rathana Thero’s call for a corrupt free of charge society below very good governance to the benefit of all. In reality this is what Holy Quran has been teaching for the past more than 14 centuries. This was the just rule in Madina for the duration of the time of Prophet Muhammad and beneath righteous caliphs. Regrettably western imperil powers distort Islam and demonize Muslims to invade and destroy Muslim countries and Muslim societies to loot their wealth and guarantee that Islam remains suppressed to suit their evil designs. Thus the planet is unable to comprehend Islam. Sri Lanka is no exception.

The Quran states: “And by the Mercy of Allah, you dealt with them gently. And had you been extreme and harsh-hearted, they would have broken away from about you so pass more than (their faults), and ask (Allah’s) Forgiveness for them and seek the advice of them in the affairs. Then when you have taken a choice, put your trust in Allah, undoubtedly, Allah loves those who place their trust (in Him)” (three:159).

Exceptional Islamic leaders  are truthful, just and keep away from bribery and corruption.

“And do not devour your wealth amongst yourselves by means of falsehood, and provide it not as a bribe to the authorities that you may possibly knowingly devour a portion of the wealth of other individuals with injustice.” (two:189).

Ibn Masud said that Allah&#8217s Messenger (Pbuh) slept on a reed mat and got up with the mark of it on his physique. He stated, &#8220O Allah&#8217s Messenger! I wish you would order us to spread one thing out for you and make anything.&#8221 The Prophet replied, &#8220What have I to do with the planet, I am like a rider who rests for a although below the shade of a tree, then goes off and leaves it.&#8221 Ubaid-Allah bin Muhsin reported Allah&#8217s Messenger (Pbuh) as saying, &#8220If any person among you is secure in thoughts in the morning, healthful in physique and has meals for the day, it is as even though the complete world has been brought into his Possession.&#8221

Abu Hurairah reported Allah&#8217s Messenger (Pbuh) as saying, &#8220Look at these who are inferior to you and do not appear at these who are superior to you, for that is far more most likely to hold you from despising Allah&#8217s Favor on you.&#8221 Abu Talha said, &#8220When we complained to Allah&#8217s Messenger of hunger and raised our clothes to show we have been every single carrying a stone over our belly, he raised his garments and showed that he had two stones on his belly.&#8221

Once Umar entered Prophet’s house and noticed the state of the furniture in it. Prophet himself had only 1 sheet of cloth round him to cover the decrease element of his physique. There was a single basic bed, with a single pillow filled with nut fiber on one particular side of the room was some barley and in a single corner near his feet was an animal skin. There were some water-bag skins hanging beside his bed. Umar mentioned that on seeing these tears came into his eyes. Allah&#8217s Messenger asked the cause for his tears. He replied, &#8220O Allah&#8217s Messenger! Why shouldn&#8217t I cry! The strings of the bed have left marks on your body. This is a tiny room with all your furnishings I can see what there is. The Kaiser (Cesar) of Rome and Kisra (Khosru) of Persia get pleasure from luxurious living while you, Allah&#8217s Messenger and the Selected One particular, reside like this.&#8221 He mentioned, &#8220Ibn Al-Khattab! Don&#8217t you like that they decide on this planet and we choose the Hereafter?&#8221.

In brief, Muhammad (Pbuh) lived and liked a straightforward life and enjoyed every minute of it. He taught his companions, via his private instance, to lead a straightforward life and not to be ostentatious.

Where are we following 14 centuries nowadays?

It is worthy to note that Islam and great Islamic rulers like Caliph Umar have disappeared from the Muslim Middle East which was turned into a killing field by United States, Europe and Israel in collaboration with the Arab dictators. All what we have is a group of treacherous anti individuals anti Islamic dictators serving their US-European masters who have installed and maintained them in energy to implement their evil agendas against Muslims.

This contains the land of Islam Saudi Arabia exactly where the ruthless dictator, the most oppressive ruler in the planet, brutalizing folks in comprehensive violation of Islam. Hence a single must not judge the present set of dictators in the Middle East by Islamic values.

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Sri Lanka’s Presidential Elections: Thoughts for the Floating Voters/New Voters on the Frequent Candidate

The floating voters and the new voters are two crucial segments in the arithmatic that would determine who would emerge as President in January 2015. The floating voters are individuals who may have at a single time voted for distinct parties and now disgusted with voting and contemplating whether to vote or not. The new voters clearly excited about working out their initial time voting appropriate may possibly also be puzzled to figure out who to vote for &#8211 the incumbent President or a contender in an alliance that will be President for one hundred days and thereafter hand energy over to one more.&nbspThe floating voter and new voters are crucial due to the fact they can realistically view the campaign slogans from a point of view that would query&nbspwhich candidate is most suited to lead the nation and provide peace and stability to Sri Lanka each at local and international level, which is what all voters require to consider about just before they place their vote.
What is important about the challenge to the incumbent in the type of a new alliance is that it is promising Change &#8211 but this modify getting promised is by a same set of politicians who have been in politics, enjoyed perks and privileges of workplace, crossed more than a number of times and have had to tag on to larger political parties for survival at distinct periods under diverse leaders. On the face of it there is no Adjust as the men and women coming forward with the modify mantra are the same politicians wanting to hold on to energy below a new set of guidelines and conditions.&nbsp&nbsp
You want modify &#8211 But what is the Adjust you are acquiring?
  • The very same people are appearing with a distinct theme
  • The very same individuals are singing a diverse song
  • The exact same folks are promising a difference &#8211 but their terms in workplace was absolutely nothing the country could be proud of
  • Can the identical people be trusted when they had broken our trust some much more than as soon as?
  • Do you trust Chandrika? Do you trust Ranil? Do you trust Mangala? Do you trust Wickramabahu? Do you trust Sambanthan? Do you trust Champaka R? Do you trust Rajitha? Can you trust Maithri? &#8211&nbspCan they be trusted to entrust the country with 20m men and women to safeguard?
  • If the same faces that held energy and want to continue power are lining up to guarantee modify, do you seriously think they can bring about adjust. More importantly is the alter they are promising, the adjust that YOU want to see?
  • Is the risk worth taking in wanting to vote for Alter but knowingly voting for people who have been verified failures in workplace?
  • A lot more importantly these failures are at the moment taking a back-office part due to the fact they cannot come out before the men and women to contest on their personal nevertheless, floating voters and new voters require to comprehend that a future Maithri Government will place all of them in Ministerial roles and these are the quite folks who were failures in office.
    The ambiguity &#8211 Maithripalanayak for one hundred days and what thereafter?
  • The 1st&nbspimportant thing that floating voters/new voters need to note is that the Opposition lobby was one particular designed not amongst them or by them but by an additional secret group due to the fact the primary Opposition party&#8217s Leader the present Opposition Leader cannot win elections. He will neither step down as Leader of the Party nor modify the celebration&#8217s Constitution even though he wishes to alter the country&#8217s Constitution for which he went to get trained in the US.
  • The 2nd&nbspimportant point is that no person or celebration or parties can form an alliance and contest without drawing the UNP offered its conventional vote base.
  • The threerd&nbspimportant point is the assurance that in exchange for the UNP votes contributing alongside the votes of others forming the new alliance, the deal is for the UNP leader to be handed power hence the one hundred day story. Why is it then that the election manifesto, campaign slogan all speak of a &#8216Maithri&#8217 &#8211 Compassionate &#8216palanayak&#8217 only below Maithri &#8230. Shouldn&#8217t&nbspthe campaign be a joint Maithri-Ranil palanayake? Is it not for this purpose together with certain slip ups by non-UNP supporters in the Maithri wing tilted a lot more towards CBK that they are starting to wonder whether Ranil or the UNP will have a future or function if Maithri had been to emerge President and Maithri would choose tutelage below CBK instead.
  • If Maithripala Sirisena can not win with no the UNP votes, why need to the UNP voters vote a non-UNP when they easily have people to prop up as a contestant instead of Ranil.&nbspIf absolutely everyone was surprised at the meek-searching former General Secretary of the SLFP emerging as a Presidential Candidate what is the harm in fielding a UNP candidate as there are enough of charismatic and sturdy personalities inside the celebration to pick from? Why have none of the other UNP leaders becoming deemed to be groomed as Presidential candidate? Is it because Ranil would lose his place in the Party as a result so he prefers hiring an outsider?
    Do you trust the Opposition Camp?

  • Can you entrust the country&#8217s stability to the exact same faces that have been confirmed failures in leadership roles?
  • Can we be assured that the peace and stability that at the moment prevails will continue beneath their leadership?
  • Can we envisage choice generating when all of them can&#8217t agree on anything except wanting to somehow come into power.
    What will bickering amongst these element result in when it comes to crucial international matters where forthright, stern and nation-centric choices demand to be taken?
  • When some in the camp are for division of the nation, some want devolution, some want separatism, some want foreign powers to manage the country, some will siphon of everything for profit and some are prepared to go along with anything because all they want to do is enjoy perks and privileges &#8211 what is this scenario most likely to lead to for the country?
    An essential issue for floating voters/new voters to take note of &#8211 no Conspiracy theories
  • The Presidential Election is about voting for a leader that can bring stability and peace to Sri Lanka and handle the international lobby against the nation. The critical point is that the nations that are punishing Sri Lanka for ending the war utilizing their influence in the UN/UNHRC are the really nations that are behind the Common Candidate.
  • What is the likely danger if such people are prepared to give every little thing and anything on the deal that they would be kept in energy &#8211 these are no laughing or exaggerated scenarios for the quite nations backing the typical candidate have been effective at dividing Yugoslavia to pieces, creating an independent Kosovo and then leaving the people in chaos, arming insurgents in nations that they want stakes in so that the folks are kept embroiled in eternal conflict although they escape with the loot (Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan and now Libya prime examples) These are definitely no conspiracy stories. These nations have been destroyed by the extremely nations that are these days responsible for choosing a candidate calculating the arithmatic on how votes are most likely to sway on paper unless folks are informed adequate to comprehend the dangers.
  • Considerably as most voters may possibly hate informing themselves of what is taking place about the planet and to nations around the world in certain smaller sized establishing nations that are strategically placed advantageous for worldwide geopolitics, it is time they ought to specifically the Colombo and other urban voters. It is the realization of the gameplans and plots taking spot about the globe at a political level that a country needs a robust leader and a robust government minus tiny parties with modest vote bases but with the ability to hold a coalition to ransome by their demands.
    Is the country protected in the hands of individuals who have lead the nation just before and failed?
    If we have not forgotten we want to now recall that
  • Far more than half of total soldiers deaths occurred for the duration of the reign of Mrs. Chandrika Kumaratunga, most battle failures took place under her reign.
  • She was collectively with Ranil Wickremasinghe ever prepared to sign the PTOMs and ISGA whereby legalizing eelam in all but name allowing LTTE to negotiate straight with foreign nations, trade straight with foreign nations, transfer funds straight and so on.
  • Ranil Wickremasinghe the supposed visionary of the UNP signed a ceasefire agreement with the LTTE with no even displaying the UNP leadership the contents of that agreement &#8211 only later the nation came to know that the agreement legally allocated sovereign territory as LTTE regions and the Colombo backers of the CFA were not bothered about what allocation of territory to the LTTE would imply to the country because they had been more than the moon that the military checkpoints had been removed which was more of a hassle for them. We can’t afford to function with such quick-sightedness for the harm is irreversible.
    Do you believe the slogan &#8216we will finish corruption&#8217?
    Please keep in mind that the men and women now claiming to have come collectively to finish corruption have themselves proven records of mass scale corruption in the course of their tenure in energy even these that have crossed over. They as well have families &#8211 siblings and youngsters very a lot waiting in the fray to take over. The Adjust will only be changing the Cover of Corruption only. We must all be realistic to the truth that corruption is embedded in right now&#8217s society &#8211 even &#8216donations&#8217 for college admissions are corruption, even giving Rs.100 to the office peon to spot one particular&#8217s file above the rest is an act of corruption, even bribing the policemen for visitors violations is corruption. Both giver and taker are therefore guilty.
    The golden rule on integrity
    Any individual claiming to be virtuous and uncorrupt can do so ONLY IF they go against coruption when it is taking spot and come out against it by claiming to want to have no element in it. No 1 can claim to be uncorrupt if they have been enjoying privileges themselves and then getting been chosen as Opposition Candidate point fingers forgetting that four fingers point back at them in return. Let us all note that all those now pointing fingers were quite considerably part of the corruption that they are accusing of &#8211 if they themselves have been people of integrity they should have come out ahead of elections have been announced and ahead of they had been chosen to be fielded to kind the Opposition.
    If we know that
  • Corruption wont finish
  • We don&#8217t know who the actual leader is &#8211 Maithripala is coming as the Presidential Candidate of the New Democratic Front, he next says he&#8217s going to abolish the Presidency (completely ignoring that he has no mandate to do so), he says he&#8217s going to appoint Ranil (unclear how that can take place also), then CBK who is politically now a nobody is assured of a function, the other supporters have all ruined the ministeries that they had been holding whatever celebration they had been in &#8211 is this a rosy image post-2015 for the individuals? There are far more concerns than answers!
  • How can Modify come about with the same individuals in a new camp specifically when they have a history of crossing back and forth for OPPORTUNITISM and absolutely nothing else. Must we not ask no matter whether this is also not an OPPORTUNISTIC decision and thus the camp have no typical agenda to serve the people except serve themselves
    These are just a handful of inquiries for the Floating Voters and New Voters to consider about prior to they cast their vote. It is also very good for them to do a very good background verify on all those in the Widespread Alliance and they question how far they can be trusted to lead a nation and guarantee Sri Lanka remains peaceful and stable as it has been since 2009 devoid the threat of terrorism and separatism. Two aspects that Sri Lanka does not want is Terrorism or Separatism/Division below any name.

    Shenali D Waduge

Categories
Foreign Affairs

Correct Nature Of The Relations In between The Govt/ LTTE Has Been Exposed: Champika

JHU General Secretary and a front-liner of the frequent Opposition movement, Patali Champika Ranawaka nowadays challenged the Rajapaksa regime to clarify the crimes that are being probed and punishments that would be meted out on these found guilty of war crimes by the Presidential Commission on Disappearances.

Champika

Champika

Speaking at a media briefing held in Colombo this afternoon, Ranawaka said President Rajapaksa ought to first clarify the specific charges that are becoming probed by the Commission and the punishments for the perpetrators

&#8220Our stand onthe subject is that if there are charges against any military personnel, it need to be probed and action against them should be taken inside the legal framework obtainable domestically. There have been several situations in Sri Lanka where such action has been taken against military personnel when found guilty,&#8221 he mentioned while adding that the government has no appropriate to speak on war crimes because it has already mandated the Disappearance Commission to investigate into it.

He went on to point out that by inviting international authorities to guidance the Commission if and when required, has also resulted in an international intervention.

&#8220We don&#8217t agree with international interventions into this matter. We strongly think it has to be carried out domestically,&#8221 he added.

Speaking further he also blamed President Rajapaksa, External Affairs Minister and Coordinating MP for the External Affairs Ministry for the present deterioration of Sri Lanka&#8217s foreign relations.

&#8220In 2009 Sri Lanka had secured a 2/3 majority inside the Human Rights Council but this circumstance was totally turned about within a handful of months by the negligence of officials,&#8221 he stated.

He also commented on the allegations that have been produced by former Basic Secretary of the UNP, Tissa Attanayake on a secret deal made by the typical Opposition to decrease troops in the North.

&#8220We learn that an attempt is becoming made to prevent the voters in the Northern province from casting their votes. This is a fine example of the true nature of the relations among the government and the LTTE. . . So I urge the Northern province residents to make use of their right to vote,&#8221 he added.

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Video

Hiru Tv Mangalam EP 112 Ravin & Sithmeni | 2014-07-27

Video Rating: five / 5

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General

Election 2015: Our selection

Given what we know of the Opposition&#8217s declared approach and policy at this stage, I am unconvinced that we should vote Mahinda Rajapaksa out. Adjust is required even imperative. But what type of modify, where, when and to whom? There is a case for peaceful democratic regime change, but what has the current Rajapaksa regime to do with the decades older Executive Presidential technique, which is a kind of state?

The present decision in Sri Lanka &#8211 and the answer to those vital questions &#8211 is excruciatingly straightforward. On 10 December, International Human Rights Day, Sirisena addressed a civil society coalition and assured it (and the nationwide tv audience) that he &#8220was searching for to occupy the chair of the presidency not for the goal of remaining in it but precisely for the objective of abolishing its power and going home.&#8221&nbsp
Now this was throughout the exact same television newscasts that showed the correct nature of the place and the persons he was pledging to transfer the power of the Presidential chair to, namely the parliamentarians who just before our quite eyes, and at that quite time, have been engaging in a game of musical chairs! So, if we are to trust Sirisena&#8217s pledge, we can anticipate the disempowerment of the Presidential chair (and its occupant, to wit, Sirisena), which is anchored in the democratic consent of the majority of our citizenry (50.1% of the vote), and the empowerment of an institution susceptible to musical chairs.
Who is to say that in a post-Mahinda period, a hung parliament barely topped by a self-enfeebled presidency with residual executive powers will not be susceptible to decisive manipulation by a concerted infusion of money from the secessionist network of the Tamil Diaspora? Who is to say that such a maneuver by the Diaspora Tamil Eelamists will be unable to engineer a government of its decision which will pledge the withdrawal of troops from the North?
In the new configuration as created by the Opposition&#8217s strategists, domestic and external, the residual presidency of Sirisena will not and structurally cannot be the decisively preeminent power center. It will be the PM and the Cabinet. The dominant political poles of attraction are far more than likely to be Ranil Wickremesinghe and Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga.&nbsp
One doesn&#8217t have to be Hobbesian (though it assists) to concur that the principal duty of the state towards its citizenry is not very good governance so considerably as the more fundamental existential one particular of the protection of life and limb from a violent, determined, ruthlessly marauding enemy. Chandrika and (a lot more so) Ranil miserably failed that most essential test whilst Mahinda Rajapaksa passed it with flying colors.
He protected this nation and its men and women, liberating us from Prabhakaran&#8217s reign of terror. Therefore as a student of politics, I can’t advocate an outcome that sends Mahinda Rajapaksa packing although restoring Ranil and Chandrika to prominent positions of energy and influence &#8211 equal to, if not surpassing that of Sirisena. Right after all, Mangala Samaraweera did solemnly declare that it is Wickremesinghe who will be &#8220the 1st amongst equals.&#8221
Wartime indecision
It is correct that Gen. Sarath Fonseka was perhaps the primary driver of the victory insofar as the ground war was innovatively made and determinedly driven by him. It is no less correct that this administration treated him disgracefully.
Even so, an outstanding troika, Generals Fonseka, Janaka Perera and Gamini Hettiaarachchi have been in Chandrika&#8217s army for her two Presidential terms and she failed to win the war &#8211 simply because she didn&#8217t think it could be won that Prabhakaran could be militarily defeated. Or, due to utter ideological and philosophical confusion, she didn&#8217t consider it as desirable.
Mahinda Rajapaksa won the war for us due to the fact he had political will and clarity &#8211 and he had a brother, Gotabaya, who could handle the war effort with zealous dedication and expertise. With each other, Mahinda and Gotabaya have been capable to mitigate the bitter inter-service (Fonseka-Karannagoda) and intra-service rivalries.
In the loop in the early 1990s, I watched helplessly as the Waidyaratne-Kobbekaduwa split paralysed the war work during President Premadasa&#8217s term, while he refused my entreaties to step in and regularly spearhead the National Security Council, asserting that that &#8220we ought to leave it to the experts &#8211 the Tamils should be in a position to see that the Presidency was not straight involved in the war.&#8221
What was the critical moment of the war? It was a replay of that moment in 1987, when the Sri Lankan armed forces were about to prevail over Prabhakaran in Operation Liberation but President Jayewardene received a deterring warning from Higher Commissioner J.N. Dixit. In 2009, President Rajapaksa had two fairly similar moments about which I heard, not only from him, but far far more credibly and at 1st hand, from the Norwegian Ambassador Torre Hattrem and the French Foreign Minister of that time, Bernard Kouchner.
It is Mahinda Rajapaksa who sought India&#8217s backing and overruled the US evacuation attempt which had been facilitated by the Norwegians. A lot more crucially, it is he who curtly told an arrogant, blustering David Miliband that &#8220Sri Lanka is no longer a British colony&#8221 when pressure was put on him for a &#8216humanitarian pause&#8217 in the fighting and a resumption of negotiations, a few weeks prior to our soldiers accomplished final victory. (Kouchner&#8217s story, connected to me and my wife at a lunch in Paris, came as no surprise given that I was element of the discussion in early 2007 when President Rajapaksa told US Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher &#8220I am sorry Mr. Boucher, but what can I do if my terrorists are not Islamic?&#8221).
Champika Ranawaka, who claims credit for the drive to finish the war, was not even a peripheral figure in those decisive discussions with the worldwide powers. Gen. Sarath Fonseka was not present in the area. Gotabaya Rajapaksa was in the loop but not on center stage. The selection not to blink and to take the war to a finish what ever the consequences was a political and existential one, and it was produced by President Rajapaksa.
In the final analysis, it wasn&#8217t Gota&#8217s war it was Mahinda&#8217s, and he have to not be made to spend a price tag at our extremely hands for his resolve in our defense and his defiance of the West. The Tamil Diaspora desires revenge for the defeat of their Tigers and the death of Prabhakaran. The West wants to make an instance of Mahinda for far higher stakes: he opted for China and Russia over the West. The two compulsions converge (most overtly in Geneva).
Take into account this very carefully: are we ready to threat the possibility that Rajapaksa could be a 21st century Rajasinha (the last king of Kandy), carted off by the West to be made an instance of i.e. legally lynched, for his defiance in our defense? Do we want that on our collective conscience? Is that how we want future generations to view us? I rather doubt that history will absolve us.
The Joint Opposition&#8217s present plan combines the prospects of radical politico-constitutional change and no much less radical financial change, provided that Ranil Wickremesinghe is an ideologically conservative, neoliberal privatiser and freezer of public expenditure (as confirmed for the duration of his mercifully brief tenure as PM).
Punishing a verified leader
If the contrasting fates of Gorbachev/Yeltsin&#8217s Russia and Deng Hsiao Peng&#8217s China demonstrate anything, it is that political and economic reform have to not proceed simultaneously, if 1 is not to risk meltdown. The scenario of a self-diminished Sirisena Presidency, a shift of energy to a volatile Parliament, an economically neoliberal Wickremesinghe Prime Ministership, a &#8216CBK as Sonia Gandhi&#8217 aspect, an assertive Northern Provincial Council, cosmopolitan civil society-human rights NGO-Western pressures on &#8220cooperation and compliance&#8221 with the UN probe on international law and accountability concerns, and radical privatisation, fill me with foreboding since the centrifugal elements outnumber and outweigh the centripetal ones.
Are we prepared for a Western dominated, semi-colonial Sri Lanka of the sort we lived in for the duration of the Ranil&#8211Chandrika-Solheim years that disgraceful decade of diminished and retrenched national sovereignty? Are we prepared for the inevitable blowback, polarisation and radicalisation?
In its narrow judgment in favor of the 13th Amendment in 1987, Sri Lanka&#8217s Supreme Court ruled that this structural reform, which made for provincial autonomy, remained inside the framework of the unitary state due to the fact of the executive presidency and its powers more than the council as vested in the Governor. Without the magnet or &#8216maypole&#8217 as it were, of the elected executive presidency, the centripetal prospective of the provincial councils would be greater than their centrifugal prospective. This is yet an additional, doubtlessly unwitting, danger posed by the joint Opposition&#8217s stated project.
A presidential election is not about constitutional modify. It is about choosing a leader for the nation, the state &#8211 or more fundamentally, the collective, the neighborhood, the tribe (if you favor an anthropological existentialism).
I am reluctant to dispense with the services of the leader who passed the crucial test of &#8216domestic R2P&#8217 &#8211 the &#8216Responsibility to Safeguard&#8217 his men and women and country from the armed enemy. I hesitate to ditch a sturdy leader and confirmed success in the most crucial matter, and replace him with an unproven if courageous, decent man who will cede a lot of his energy to two established failures.
(Dayan Jayatilleka was Sri Lanka&#8217s Permanent Representative to the UN in Geneva from 2007-09, and until not too long ago, Ambassador to France. He is the author of &#8216Long War, Cold Peace: Conflict and Crisis in Sri Lanka,&#8217 Vijitha Yapa Publishers, 2013.)
Supply: http://www.ft.lk/2014/12/20/election-2015-our-decision/

Categories
Foreign Affairs

Tumbling Of Crude Oil Costs: Economic Laws Say That This Is A Short-term Phenomenon

By W.A. Wijewardena –

Dr. W.A. Wijewardena

Dr. W.A. Wijewardena

A drastic reduction in crude oil rates

Crude oil rates in the planet marketplace have tumbled and they are nevertheless tumbling. The average price of the West Texas Intermediate category of crude oil stood at a level of $ 100 per barrel, which is equal to 159 litres a handful of months ago. It has now fallen to a level of $ 60 per barrel final week. This is practically a decline of 40% in an important commodity within a couple of months.

Supply has grown quicker than demand causing prices to fall.

The price of any commodity falls mainly due to that commodity getting an excess provide. An excess supply can occur due to a fall in demand or an boost in provide or both. In the present predicament, when the Northern Hemisphere of the globe goes into winter, the demand for oil merchandise usually rises simply because of the require for heating. Hence, if there is an excess supply this winter, it is primarily due to the supply of crude oil increasing faster than the improve in demand.

Two theories have been raised to explain the present excess supply of crude oil in the marketplace. One is financial and the other is political.

The US going into tapping shale oil sources

The economic motives are significantly less unknown in this part of the world. That is, the United States has, in a massive way, explored oil in new oilfields recognized as ‘shale oil’ fields by utilizing a new technology referred to as ‘fracking’ which is the shortened kind of what is ordinarily referred to as ‘fracturing’.

Oil shale refers to a rock situated about 4-5 km beneath the surface of the earth containing solid bituminous components referred to as kerogen that are released as petroleum-like liquids by heating the rocks (accessible right here) The shale oil is in strong form and for that reason can’t be pumped to the ground like the oil that is extracted from conventional oil fields. Hence, even although the availability of oil in shale rocks was known for centuries, the industrial exploitation of shale oil did not take spot until the early component of the second decade of the new millennium.

Even as late as 2011, the US Bureau of Land Management had concluded that “there are no economically-viable ways but identified to extract and process shale oil for commercial purposes.”

The fracking technology to bring shale oil up

But this was not to be for extended. A new technique of tapping the vast deposits of oil and gas contained in shale rocks was employed on a industrial basis in the US right after about 2012. That was called hydraulic fracturing or merely ‘fracking’.

With this approach, what is becoming done is that a vertical hole is drilled up to the formation of shale rocks, which are located about four km beneath the ground level. This vertical drill is continued horizontally via the shale rock related to the ‘donas’ which a single finds in gem pits in Ratnapura. Then, about 4 million litres of water mixed with sand and chemical compounds are injected at higher stress to the horizontal section of the drill causing the shale rock to fracture and crack open, similar to the fracturing which could happen in a bone of the physique when it is subjected to a heavy blow.

The fissures developed by the fracturing are kept open by the sand that is released along with the water mixture. It causes the shale rock to release the gas and oil which had been contained within it for a lot of millions of years. The oil and gas mixed with water are then pumped back to the ground, separated and employed for further processing. The recovered water is initial stored in open pits and then removed to treatment plants.

The fracking revolution

Fracking has revolutionised oil and gas exploration in the world. This was hitherto a commercially untapped resource and now it is getting tapped on a huge scale, especially in the northern portion of the United States.

Its sudden proliferation has helped the United States to increase production of each these energy things. By 2014, the US became self-adequate in natural gas and in the case of oil, emerged as the world’s biggest producer of crude oil, driving Saudi Arabia down to second spot.

It is estimated that by 2020 the US will grow to be self-enough in crude oil as effectively. This was excellent news for Obama administration which had been beleaguered by all for a lack of visible financial recovery in the country. Hence, despite the protests against fracking on environmental grounds, the Obama administration is openly supporting the new oil exploration venture which US companies have undertaken.

The world’s fracking mania

Shale oil is not confined only to the US. It is abundantly accessible in the southern provinces of Canada, Lithuania, China and New Zealand. Soon after it was proved that fracking technology was a industrial good results, all these countries have now started plans to exploit their shale oil resources. The enhanced oil and gas production in the US has decreased its imports making a glut in the present power marketplace, sending prices down.

Planned future shale oil exploration by other nations will hold the market place glut going for numerous a lot more years. The present surplus as effectively as the anticipated surplus has sent oil costs tumbling in the globe industry. That is the economic cause for the present decline in oil prices.

A conspiracy theory to clarify falling oil rates

The political cause is connected with a well-liked ‘conspiracy theory’. The present glut has been augmented by Saudi Arabia’s refusal to reduce oil production to match the decreased import demand to sustain oil prices at its historical typical of $ one hundred a barrel.

The Saudis have rationalised that even if oil prices have come down to $ 40 a barrel, they would nevertheless not take into account cutting oil production. The present low oil costs are a loss to Saudis and other members of the Organisation for Petroleum Exporting Countries, popularly recognized as OPEC. But if costs further tumble to a $ 40 level, their losses would be augmented beyond recovery.

In this background, what has prompted the Saudis to stubbornly refuse to reduce oil production? The conspiracy theory has been harboured to justify this irrational behaviour.

Bringing Russia to its knees

It has been argued that the Saudis want to punish 3 parties by permitting oil costs to fall in the market place. First, it is to punish Russia which is supporting the Assad regime in Syria which the Saudis want to topple. Russia is heavily dependent on its oil sources for financing the price range and earning foreign exchange. About a half of its budgetary revenue and about 60% of its export earnings come from the oil sector. When these earnings dwindle on best of the present financial sanctions against Russia by the US and the EU on account of its expansionary policy toward Ukraine, Russia is anticipated to fall to its knees, completely appreciating the emerging stark economic realities.

Currently Russia has been punished by these two counts: its currency, the rouble, has fallen in the marketplace from about 30 roubles a dollar to 70 roubles a dollar. The Russian Central Bank is desperately trying to maintain the rouble from further falling by releasing some of the dollar reserves it is holding and escalating interest rates to an unprecedentedly high level of 17% per annum. Each these measures are anticipated to punish Russia in the long run by shrinking its economy.

Punishing Iran for getting nuclear ambitions

The second celebration which it is claimed that the Saudis want to punish is the unfriendly regime in Iran. Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been deemed by the Saudis as a threat to their existence. Since it is unlikely that Western sanctions against Iran could force the regime to abandon its nuclear ambitions, it is said that the Saudis want to make their own attempt. That is, by forcing oil prices to fall in the market place and sustaining them at those low levels for sometime the Saudis want to provide a fatal blow to that nation.

Damn the US shale producers

The third party to be punished, according to this conspiracy theory, are the shale oil makers in the US. Tapping shale oil resources is a costly affair and if oil prices fall beneath $ 80 per barrel, offered the current expense structure, the boom in the shale oil sector in the US will come to a sudden finish. Thus, it is alleged that the Saudis want to get rid of a single of their rivals who has resorted to option oil exploration.

Can the Saudis be on a self-destructive path?

This conspiracy theory is rationalised by pointing to the low expense of the production of crude oil in Saudi Arabia. Because Saudi oil is found pretty close to the surface level, it is blessed with the lowest expense among all the oil producers in the planet.

Its charges range in between $ 15 and $ 25 per barrel whereas in all other nations they are above 50 per barrel. So, the Saudis can still survive even at a price tag of $ 40 per barrel whereas all other producers, including the US’s shale oil producers, will vanish from the industry at that value level.

It is economics and not conspiracies which rules markets

Several believe in this conspiracy theory due to the fact it is exciting and attractive to the well-liked sentiments of people. It is the big and potent guys who are to be punished and not the poor nations in the world. Hence, a conspiracy theory which suggests that the US is going to be punished has considerably a lot more appeal than any other conspiracy theory.

But if this conspiracy theory is true, then, the Saudis are on a self-destruction path. Saudi Arabia depends principally on its oil sector for wealth, export earnings and prosperity. If oil prices are at a low level for a considerable period of time, it is Saudi Arabia which is to endure more than these countries which it desires to punish. Additional, though the Saudis can withstand and survive through a cost reduction, all other members of OPEC can’t do so due to the higher price of oil production by them. A lot of such producers, especially Venezuela and Nigeria, have to close shop if they are hit by such an external oil value shock.

It is as a result unlikely that any rational selection-maker would go for such a self-destructive choice. Hence, it is more probably that these punishments are basically a natural consequence of the present global oversupply in oil rather than deliberate action taken by 1 of the major oil producers.

Market’s reaction to low oil rates

Hence, the all-natural industry forces will do a series of market adjustments to right the present fall in oil rates. Pressure would be exerted on Saudi Arabia to cut output and thereby bring oil prices up once more. Investors in shale oil in the US, obtaining that their oil wells are no far more economical, will voluntarily restrict oil production thereby permitting oil imports to the US as soon as once again.

These nations which are blessed with shale oil deposits will postpone their plans to tap this resource thereby taking out the anticipated market place provide of crude oil due to new shale oil exploration. Accordingly, marketplace costs will start moving up once once again and get stabilised at around $ 80 to $ 90 per barrel. That cost is an economic value for all other oil producers in the globe.

Low oil rates are an inhibiter to Sri Lanka’s Mannar Basis ambitions

Sri Lanka’s existing oil consumption stands at about 1 billion litres of petrol and two billion litres of diesel per annum. It would have gained a substantial advantage due to the low oil rates had it not enhanced its vehicle imports in a massive measure in the current past via a supporting duty reduction.

Vehicle registrations are increasing at a rate demanding a lot more oil and diesel imports. Accordingly, though the price is low, the volume will improve, decreasing the total advantage which the nation would have gotten out of the decline in oil rates in the planet market.

Sri Lanka’s nascent oil exploration efforts in the Mannar Basin will also suffer if oil rates are at a level of $ 80 or beneath. These offshore oil explorations are such a pricey affair, even North Sea oil producers cannot survive unless oil rates have risen to a level of $ 90 and above.

If the prices are reduced than this threshold value, the Mannar Basin oil could be pumped up only with a supporting subsidy by the Government. Hence, it will be a lot more economical for Sri Lanka to hold the oil under the sea level in the Mannar Basin alternatively of taking it out.

The current value fall is a temporary phenomenon

Consequently according to economic logic, the present tumble of oil rates in the globe markets is going to be a short-term phenomenon. They will stay at these low levels only for another six to eight months. Soon after that, prices will settle when again at a level of about $ 80- $ 90 a barrel.

*W.A Wijewardena, a former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, can be reached at [email protected]